Return and Variance Calculator

This casino game return and variance calculator tells the expected return of an online casino bonus and chance of gain. You can use this calculator as an aid when contemplating on your bet size or checking if your results were within normal variance while playing usual casino games like blackjack, video poker, roulette etc.

Required inputs are bonus, wagering, and bet size. If you are playing a 100% match bonus of 100€ with a 10x(B+D) wagering requirement, you would input a bonus of “100” and a wagering of 10×200=”2000″. To check variance and expected return for play without bonuses, leave the bonus input at 0. “Bet size” is the bet size per hand. So if you are playing 50-play video poker with a total bet of $5, the bet size per hand would be 0.10. Set bet size to 0.10 and “multiple hands” to 50. If you are playing one hand at a time, use the default “multiple hands” value of 1.

You can modify the house edge and standard deviation defaults for each game if you like to fine tune the inputs. House edge is listed in terms of initial bet (on this website normally per unit wagered since it gives a better result). After selecting the values, click “Calculate.”

The chance of gain result is the chance of ending above the deposit balance with unlimited bankroll. See the return and variance simulator for estimates with a limited bankroll. Chance of gain approximates return as a normal distribution. This is a good approximation for games with low variance. However, the distribution of high variance games like video poker, return does not appear like a true normal curve until reaching enough hands to hit highest payouts (a royal flush).


Bonus Amount: 
Wagering Requirement: 
Bet Size: 
Multiple Hands: 
House Edge (%): 
Standard Deviation: 
Final Bet: Initial Bet Ratio: