Aapo's Sports Betting Articles / Strategies Thread

[Aapo]

First a little disclaimer; I have only been live betting on soccer, on which base this text is also been written. The basics are of course the same in every sport when betting live, but there are big differences too. Another thing to note is that I personally also am just learning live betting, so keep that in mind while reading further.

Live betting has taken monster steps forward during last few years. If it was before a bit more a game between bettors, nowadays one can play even marginal leagues live. Especially Asian bookers seem to offer live betting to every game possible, and with good odds and high limits. There is a lot money moving around so someone has to make it too somewhere. Live betting is very characteristically very hectic. Every minute and even a second make difference how the match is going and therefore to the odds too. Bookkers and exchanges correct their odds very frequently depending on what is happening in the match, so player really has to be really awake to beat these “villains”.

In my opinion the pre-match estimates are one of the most important thing in live betting (a bit surprisingly maybe). Final rosters have to be checked and estimates made based on those. After this follows the hardest (or the most fascinating) part of the live betting – how to modify your estimates during the event? How every single thing alters the real odds? One has to make well enough research to get into this fast pace betting – how much a single minute alters the odds in a soccer match for example? How to react if the pace of the match is slower/faster than expected? How an injury effects to estimates? How about a red card? At what point of the match the goals are most likely to occur? What happened to different team’s goal-intensity in different situations, or how about if the team is underdog or favourite? Yeah, tough questions and one could continue to list these much more.

What comes to my own live betting, this far I have only decided to make pre-match estimates as good as possible and then observe the match until half time and then I have made my bets. This just because the odds for different half-times are much more easy to calculate than minute-by-minute odds. Of course it is this way for the bookers too, but at the moment I believe I am more strong at half-time bets.

[Peixinho]

I have two favorite live-bets and they are (placed soon after the game begins): Over 11 corners and Under 3.5 cards. I've never lost a single card bet and I've been betting those every now and then for about a year. (just luck of course). Very rarely I bet Over 3.5 cards. I don't know anything about power numbers or other fancy stuff, but there are number of things I consider: Is the game likely to be those hot local games? How important is the game for the teams? Who is the referee? If Rooney is playing, you can count that he takes one yellow every time.. . Then I watch the game a little and see how things are going...

The main reason I prefer these two bets is that they make the game very interesting! And they also last usually till the end... Betting 10 minute cards is also interesting. And one thing I sometimes do in the end of the game: If the game is like 1-0 you sometimes get about 15-20:1 odds for the underdog to get even. I place the bet ready and wait for a situation for example where the underdog team player get's through... This has happened just once but it was a success! (I noticed two players alone in front of the goal (not offside) and saw that third player is going to pass the ball to them, so immediately placed the bet.) The downside in this, is that the odds change so rapidly that you must place the bet ready many times...

So Aapo, do you have any favorite bets or is everything pure mathemathics and EV for you?