Sports Betting Tips Service Feedback, Questions and Comments

[Winnergambling]

Originally Posted by Winnergambling

Hmmm...I have never had lower limit than $500 to European football early lines.

And I want to add that I am speaking about leagues within our tipping service. Limits can be lower to marginal leagues or other sports than soccer.

[hjalamari]

Originally Posted by Peixinho

You are asking wrong questions, do you think they would answer: "Yes, we only limit your bets."

I can check this week when the early lines come and post here what limits I have.

I did ask it as anonymous, so they couldnt know who was "me"

I was trying to place an early line to either Serie A or Premier League, but limit was too low even to my "enourmous" bankroll

I have heard similar stories, but of course their limits might vary ALOT.

[hjalamari]

Well, currently their limits to earlys for La Liga/Serie/Premier League are 500€-1000€, which is of course enough for most. For same days' odds' they offer limits up to 10 000€ ie in Bundesliga.

If you try to place an early just after odds have arrived, they are only quite low. Maybe that has been the reason for particularly low odds for me

[kiltroni]

Very good final weekend for Serie A and La Liga. Veikkausliiga even better and early season losses are distant memory.

I just wish that bets for HJK home games hit sometime, my friends are laughing their asses of when we are watching games and every time 'my' bets miss.

[Winnergambling]

Aapo has promised to write some kind of review analysis about the whole euro football tipping season 2008-2009 later this week. It will be posted to this thread.

[Aapo]

Hi,

It is a time for a little summary on season 08-09 and introduction of coming season at the same time.

I have to be very satisfied with the results of three European leagues in the chargeable period. I did my best all the time and it is seen in the result. I am especially pleased that I could beat the market in the motivation matches in a last few rounds. It is comfortable to complete the season in the upswing

Official tracking of tipping service from December 2008 until end of the season 08-09:

La Liga:
238 bets
Return% 106,8%
Result +80,58 units

Premier League:
208 bets
Return% 110,7%
Result +107,80 units

Serie A:
244 bets
Return% 102,3%
Result +32,08 units

TOTAL:
690 bets
Return% 106,2%
Result +220,46 units

And the whole season tracking (includes tracked non-paid early season tips from Ylikerroin forum)

La Liga:
383 bets
Return% 109,1%
Result +181,73 units

Premier League:
409 bets
Return% 106,5%
Result +144,76 units

Serie A:
419 bets
Return% 102,0%
Result +47,02 units

TOTAL:
1211 bets
Return% 105,6%
Result +373,51 units

Season 2009-2010

I haven’t decided all the details about coming season yet, so it is time of your opinions and wishes! I am almost sure there will be the same three leagues in the next season too, but how about price, possible customer amount restriction, selling larger packages etc...I am not sure yet. I do would like to get your opinions and comments! If you are preliminary interested into buying tips in the next season, I hope you will send an e-mail to betting@winnergambling.com with Season 2009-2010 in the headline and your name and hopes in the text box (in english or finnish). I would like to mention that sending an email is not a binding enrolment. If I decide to put some customer amount restriction, I will take old customers first and then the fastest registered preliminary persons.

Happy summetime!

Regards,
Aapo

[specs]

Hello! I am situation that I have to go working other country for couple months and cannot place bets there. How can I cancel the rest season veikkausliiga order! I have paid now only first piece. Is it OK just not to pay rest pieces and been cancelled automatically. (Aapo will not send bonebreakers after me? ) or do I have to that some othe way? I tried to send E-mail direct to winnergambling but my mails just keep bouncing back.

[Winnergambling]

You can PM Aapo through this forum too.

[pokerbot]

Hello!

I have been using the tips service for the finnish league this season, and I have a few questions. Hopefully I will get some reasonable answers and/or suggestions.

First I have noticed that the odds I am getting almost always are lower than the odds Aapo refers to in his mails. I guess this is natural as I assume Aapo makes his bets before sending out the mails and many times it is not a problem. Sometimes however the odds a way below what Aapo gets, at the most up to 0,3 of a point below f.ex. 2,06-1,76.
I am not sure what the right approach would be in cases like this. Should I lower my stakes, if so how much, or is it in some cases right to not make the bet at all? So far I have mostly lowered my stakes. After all the tips service is aiming for a 105% ROI and if many bets drops as much as 25-30% before I am able to make my bets this may be very hard to achieve. The value of the bet is clearly affected by this. I would like to underline that most of the time I make my bets shortly after the mail is recieved. So far I am surpassing the goal of 105%, but this includes my adjustments and some money line bets I have extracted on my own from Aapos percentage settings, which so far has been a 100% success for me. I have also been lucky on a couple of occasions where I have not been able to make any bets, and it has turned out to be a losing round. I don't expect the positive factors to always go my way in the future:-)
I would also like to know if the odds changes for the finnish season has been bigger than for other leagues. I read somewhere in this forum one time that the odds changes in bigger leagues were small. I assume the bookies will change their odds quicker in a league like Finland compared to La Liga, Premier league or other leagues where the total stake of the finnish season may be bet in a single round.

Second I have noticed from my statistics that there is a big difference between the two main bet types Aapo uses, asian handicap (ahc) and over/under (o/u).
So far my ROI for ahc is very high, 146%, whilst the ROI for o/u is only 93%, in other words losing. From the data I have available I can not point to a specific reason for this as the odds changes referred to over seems to be random for ahc and o/u. This may of course just be variance but it would be interesting to hear from Aapo or others if they have the same experience so far, and if the numbers are very different from earlier seasons.
Unfortunately the total stake for o/u betting is nearly twice as high as for ahc, so my total ROI is just over 105%.

My third question is kind of a breed of the two above. Aapo writes that he uses the Kelly-formula when he sizes his bets. I am no expert bettor but as far as I understand the Kelly-formula takes into account your own skills, compares them to the actual odds and then gives a long term more valuable betsize than other betsizing strategies. If so I would assume that negative odds changes would be strenghtened by using this formula. Does anyone have comments to this?
I have ran a little test for myself by transferring all the bets I have made from Aapos suggestions this season into flat bets, that is making the same bet size for all bets. As it turns out my total profit would be slightly higher using flat bets than Aapos suggestions, just like 5 units. Looking at the two main bet types though I would have lost a few units from ahc bets compared to today, and for o/u the loss would have been reduced by nearly 50%. The main trends would be the same as for my actual bets so far, which leads me to thinking that the answer to question 2 would be variance.
That set aside. Does anyone think it would be wise to use flat bets for o/u and keep using Aapos suggestions for the ahc bets?

Finally I would like to say that I am overall happy with the service just in case someone got other ideas from my post:-)

I look forward to any comments from you guys!

Keep betting, Kris

[kiltroni]

There are instructions how to react to odd changes here: http://www.winnergambling.com/sports...pes-and-units/

I have noticed that Veikkausliiga odds drop very fast after email comes. I have been able to bet sometimes with same odds than in email, but usually little lower. It seems to be "fastest hands win" race when the email comes.

Odds in bigger leagues drop slower or at least did in last season. It's possible that next season there are more people receiving tips from Aapo with bigger bankrolls than before. This could affect odds more rapidly than last season even with bigger leagues. At least my bankroll is now nearly double compared to last january when I started betting with Aapo's tips.