Premier League 2008-09

[Peixinho]

General discussion from gambler's view. Where are the best odds to Premier League? Which club do you think will win? Best live-bet sites etc.

Clubs for season 2008-09:

Arsenal
Aston Villa
Blackburn Rovers
Bolton Wanderes
Chelsea
Everton
Fulham
Hull City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Manchester United
Middlesbrough
Newcastle United
Portsmouth
Stoke City
Sunderland
Tottenham Hotspur
West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United
Wigan Athletic

[Peixinho]

Yesterday was the opening round and I watched all the 3 live tv-matches. I betted in all matches at Bet365 and won a little.

In one bet I don't understand why I won. I made a €2 eur bet in Arsenal - West Brom match to Carlos Alberto Vela to score first and Arsenal 1-0. The odds were 25:1. I just picked a random name with high odds before the game, I sometimes make these kinds of bets, it's fun when it hits and it's only 2 euros . Carlos Vela didn't play at all, but he was a subsitute in the match. Bet365 rules say that if a player doesn't play, all bets will be void. I still won with 6:1 odds, that is €14. The first and only scorer was Arsenal's Samir Nasri. Could somebody explain this?

[Winnergambling]

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[Peixinho]

Last wednesday I got drunk and played some casino games. I managed to get almost up to €3k by playing blackjack starting with 200 deposit but then I raised bet and lost everything. That, of course, led to a serious TILT and I deposited €1k to Centrebet and tried to move the whole amount to casino. There was some problem and the transfer didn't succeed but the tilt had to be handled some way. So I put everything to the last saturdays game West Brom - Everton, Everton to win! I knew that Everton was last seasons 5th and West Brom was playing in Championship league so I thought it would be a good bet.

Next morning I started to regret that bet and started to think ways to reverse it somehow. One way would be bet the other outcomes and take a small loss on the game. After searching odds and sports bonuses I decided not to make this kind of backing because:

1) The odds (2.32) I played on Everton were lousy on Centrebet so in the match day betting for 1 and X would result to a sure loss of about 200 euros (without bonuses).

2) I didn't have enough money in Neteller so I would have to bet some of amount with worse odds at Nordicbet or other place where you can deposit via bank account instantly.

3) There were some bonuses I could have used but I decided to use them later when I can make the bets that are best for clearing these bonuses.

4) This site's administrator made me understand that this kind of safe play is for pussies!

About half an hour before the start, the game was a nice surebet for minute or two with odds being: 3.00, 3.40 and 3.05. I really think 3 or more were excellent odds for Everton. I watched West Brom's first game against Arsenal and it didn't look so good. Everton had a defeat also on their first round and as a more skilled club I thought they are anxious to win.

First time I tilt this way! (and hopefully the last...)

By the way, the match ended 1-2 so I made a nice €1320 profit!

[Winnergambling]

You almost beat tiltez, LOL.

[Peixinho]

BetBrain's odds as writing this: 1= 2.2, X= 3.4, 2= 3.95, Over/Under 2.5= 2.23/1.72

My prediction: Portsmouth has lost many games in a row so they are getting desperate which leads to goals in both sides. There will be more than 2.5 goals. This game could end in any way. I think 3.95 is not enough for Portsmouth to win. Portsmouth will score first and makes a game interesting. Odds for 2-2 are 17 and for 3-1 they are 19 at bet365. I'll bet for draw and 2-2.

[Winnergambling]

Thanks for the analysis.

If you are going to play premier league / other football euro series regularly, it would be nice to have tracing of your scores in signature or in own thread maybe.

[kiltroni]

As a big football fan and keen follower of the Premiership I try to watch all the TV games. After three rounds biggest suprise to me has been Wigan. They have played three good games but didn't get the reward from the first two. Check them out in the next matches.

Other good team with poor start is Portsmouth. They have a good squad and are better than their points tell. I actually made nice money from these two at last weeks "Vakioveikkaus".

Newcastle and West Ham are without manager now, so you have to keep track on their new ones and how it's going to affect their performances. I guess that Newcastle are in a big trouble (again) and are going to have a hard time next few months.

[Peixinho]

Very interesting saturday coming. The four big ones all playing in TV games! All the matches have Finnish commentator.

Liverpool - Man United 14:45
Blackburn - Arsenal 17:00
Man City - Chelsea 19:25

(times GMT+3)

But first things first, remember to watch Finland - Germany tomorrow!

[Winnergambling]

Originally Posted by Peixinho

All the matches have Finnish commentator.

On Canal+ you mean?