Winnergambling's Blog

[Winnergambling]

I just placed some bets on British Open, the 3rd golf major tournament of the year. As I have told here before, I like golf - have been playing myself for several years. Handicap has been ~5.0 at the best times when I was younger - for a last few years haven´t had time to play much at all though.

The competition is halfway through and 3rd round will start soon, though top30 starts on 12.15PM GMT->, so if you wanna place bets, you still have plenty of time to place them. Current standings are extremely close and there are ~30 players in within 5 shots at the top, so it still pretty much anyones game. This of course opens plenty of nice betting options!

You can bet on the event outcome on regular bookmakers, but what I recommend as a best option in general is Betfair betting exchange, where you usually find best odds for single winner bets for golf and other similar events where you pick one result from many possibilities (like a winner of a golf competition).

I made following bets a moment ago:

Back | Odds | Stake | Possible Profit
Robert Allenby 18 $100.00 $1,700.00
Fredrik Jacobson 38 $50.00 $1,850.00
Alexander Noren 50 $40.00 $1,960.00
Soren Hansen 65 $30.00 $1,920
David Horsey 260 $10.00 $2,590.00


Robert Allenby is an experienced, very consistent world top player (30th on World Ranking). He´s putting has sucked this far in this competition (he´s putting average has been well above course average this far - worst of top30), and still he´s trailing only 3 shots current leader (K.J Choi). If he´s able to get his putter hot he´s chances are very good to take this down. This is close if this is a value bet or not - I´d say it´s close to zero EV with my approximations.

Fredrik Jacobson is also a consistent PGA Tour pro from Sweden, who has a lot of experience from European Tour conditions aswell. I think him having odds of 1:37 being 4 behind currently is a clear value bet. He also haven´t been putting great this far so there´s space to improve.

Alexander Noren is less experienced player from Sweden - currently 50th on European Tour Order of Merit this year. He´s only trailing by 3 shots ATM, so I´d say odds to win are better than current 1:49 offered.

Totesport offers 1:66 odds for Soren Hansen to win ATM. I wasn´t able to place that bet there, since I noticed that I have old credit card details on my Totesport account and changing them has to be done through support via email or phone so I made this bet on Betfair instead with 1:64 odds. There are very small betting limits at Totesport (at least for me) - I would have been only able to bet £23 on that outcome, but these are player dependant I guess so someone might be able to bet more. And I guess for a long shot like this, limit of £23 is not a problem for most of us. Betting Hansen (trailing by 5 currently) on Tote is a value bet IMO, especially when Totesport offers a free bet of £5-£25 matching initial bet on their sportsbook. Good possibility to use that offer with this bet to freeroll with this bet. But if you don´t own credit card, you can of course do as I did and bet this too at Betfair also.

On David Horsey I put $10 just for fun. He´s trailing by 5 shots and haven´t shown great iron game this far, so he´s chances are neglible. Well, still 1:259 - I take this bet for entertainment value.


There is one more value bet available, which I like to mention:

On Betfair laying against Sergio Garcia to win. Garcia is trailing by 6 and still you can lay him with odds of 19.5! I don´t understand why people want to bet on Garcia´s victory with odds that low. Well, of course now he will make some impossible comeback when I mentioned this here to take this down with about ~35 players between him and current leader but as said, NO WAY he will win this event from these standings more often than once in 20 tries, which current odds suggest! I wasn´t able to put that bet on (would have layed a couple of hundred against), since I don´t have money available at Moneybookers currently and Betfair charges 1.5% fee from Neteller deposits, so it´s kinda expensive to pay ~$50 in fees to make a bet to win $200 for example.

But if you have money on Betfair already or in moneybookers, I really recommend that bet too (I don´t take any responsibility though!).

[Jay]

...and Betfair charges 1.5% fee from Neteller deposits....

No they don't. They have some ongoing promotion period all the time and they credit those fees back to your account within 24 hours.

Thanks for the tips.

[Winnergambling]

No they don't. They have some ongoing promotion period all the time and they credit those fees back to your account within 24 hours.

Thanks for the tips.

Interesting. I have deposited a few times earlier and I don´t remember getting back the fees, but maybe I haven´t just noticed.

[Winnergambling]

If you watch this at TV, you notice that wind conditions are currently completely sick making watching this very entertaining! Even if you are not biggest golf fan, this is something to watch.

[Winnergambling]

Well, my winner bets aren´t doing that great (well, they were long shots after all), but at least the S.Garcia lay-bet I was pumping is doing well.

There has been predicted better weather for tomorrow, so I´m pretty sure that current Tour Pros will do better tomorrow than today. I am pretty sure that Norman won´t win if wind conditions are calm and sun is shining.

Good bet idea for tomorrow could be:
- Laying against G. Norman victory - experienced player but maybe not skillful enough anymore if conditions are transforming better and thiscompetition transforms to a birdie-fest.

[Winnergambling]

I put one more bet for tomorrow on Betfair:

Back | Odds | Stake | Possible Profit
Simon Wakefield 27 $40 $1,040.00

[Winnergambling]

Couldn´t cash from this - hopefully some of you layed against Garcia or Norman as tipped.

[Winnergambling]

I made yesterday a new PLO vid, which is currently uploading to winnergambling.com servers and when you are reading this, you are able to download it from our Poker Training Videos section.

This video is concentrating a bit more to advanced PLO concepts skipping the very basics talk. I think this vid is pretty good even though I am biased obviously.

The hand I mention on the video to put up to my blog entry was following:

Poker Room skin
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $5/$5
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $120.70
UTG+1: $2.402.60
HERO: $475.00
MP1: $204.00
MP2: $547.50
MP3: $1.361.55
CO: $485.00
Button: $1.140.00
SB: $1.139.65
BB: $85.00

Pre-flop: (10 players) HERO is UTG+2 with 7 8 9 5
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, HERO calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $30, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, HERO calls.

Flop: 7 2 6 ($155, 5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, HERO bets $155, MP3 calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: T ($620, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets $310, HERO calls all-in $290, MP3 calls.

River: 6 ($1530, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $1490, Sidepot 1: $40)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks.

Results:
Final pot: $1530
UTG+1 shows 8 5 J J
HERO shows 7 8 9 5

I was like 100% sure when board paired on the river that I would lose this, but maybe MP had 234X or something then...


What comes to other gambling - as I said in my previous post, I played Goldvictory casino bonus and netted ~$1k from it. Withdrawal was back in my neteller account in ~4 days after I had sent my docs to them. Nice casino, good service.

I also played Mansion casino reload, which was discussed in this thread on our forums. There I played CHE with pretty large bet size ($5 ante bet) and run under EV, though still making ~$300 profit with comp points. It´s OK, Mansion has been so good to that it was time to run a bit under EV this time.

Today I am going to play golf - there has been forecasted great weather for the day, so it´s a good day to go to score some pars (hopefully).

On Thursday I am leaving to Helsinki to see my friend and to have a brief meeting with our programmer. Tonight I still have a ton to do with this site.


Anyone knowing where there´s some good night life in Helsinki on Thursdays? My friend (living there) said that some place "Kalle" is pretty crowded on Thursdays, so maybe we go there if noone has any better knowledge. Some nice place to sit comfortably and to have a good chat environment (not too loud music everywhere) and just a good place to relax would be nice.


By the way, tonight I heard about this new finnish webradio called Syke FM. I like to listen to melodic/vocal/euphoric/progressive trance music while grinding, so this is pretty recommended for that purpose. No ad breaks, no registratiuon needed or anything, just continuous music either using WMP or Winamp behind two clicks. Link to the radio´s website (this ad wasn´t paid btw, LOL).

[Winnergambling]

I was at Helsinki last week and I crashed to bar Lux one night with my friend. Saw this finnish kiss-and-tell celebrity Johanna Tukiainen for the first time live there sitting in that nightclub in a dress that looked my grandma may have weared while milking cows on their farm in late 60´s or something...

I am not the biggest big J. Tukiainen fan so didn´t want to go to talk about weather or anything but just chatted with my friend and some Norwegian young women. I was a bit drunk at some point but this other Norwegian chick was sick funny. She talked english very well and sweared like an old truck driver in mid-west American bar while drinking. At some point I was loling pretty hard when she told some stories and commented stuff on different people - she used pretty vulgar language about strangers, definitely a funny stuff to hear, saved that night.


I have been on a losing streak last two days on poker. There are two reasons for it:

1. Running bad - especially in a way that I don´t hit any flops
2. I have played more loose and made too many bad decisions to push or so

A couple of examples below.

First is typical setup sh*t, which I have encountered more than enough. Not a big pot, but shows just how bad I run against these huge calling stations.

Poker Room skin
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $10/$10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $976.00
CO: $5.922.50
Button: $950.00
SB: $824.50
HERO: $1.318.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) HERO is BB with T 9 8 5
UTG folds, CO calls, SB checks, HERO checks.

Flop: T 4 9 ($30, 3 players)
SB checks, HERO bets $30, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: 7 ($90, 2 players)
HERO bets $90, CO calls.

River: Q ($270, 2 players)
HERO checks, CO bets $200, HERO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $670
CO shows 2 Q K 6
HERO shows 10 9 8 5


Second one - misplayed hand. Should have potted the turn and fold the river against this particular opponent with stats 80/15/1.1. He always has bigger flush here on the river and he checks behind the turn.

Poker Room skin
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $5/$5
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $511.50
Button: $1.047.65
HERO: $495.00
BB: $634.10

Pre-flop: (4 players) HERO is SB with T 7 6 9
UTG raises to $20, Button calls, HERO calls, BB calls.

Flop: 6 8 K ($80, 4 players)
HERO checks, BB checks, UTG bets $80, Button folds, HERO calls, BB folds.

Turn: 5 ($240, 2 players)
HERO checks, UTG checks.

River: 2 ($240, 2 players)
HERO checks, UTG bets $240, HERO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $720
UTG shows 4 A K 9
HERO shows 10 7 6 9


Then on top of these misplays and bad beats, some crazy sh*t against complete fish. Why in the hell he doesn´t 5-bet with aces OOP when betting opens again?!?!? Well, at that point I didn´t know this villain was a complete fish (82/8/1.0). If I would have, I had only called that $100 pre-flop.

Poker Room skin
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $5/$5
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
HERO: $766.50
Button: $253.05
SB: $124.90
BB: $854.00

Pre-flop: (4 players) HERO is UTG with 6 K K 4
HERO raises to $15, Button folds, SB calls, BB raises to $40, HERO calls, SB raises all-in $109.9, BB calls, HERO raises to $494.6, BB raises all-in $729.1, HERO calls all-in $266.9.
Uncalled bets: $266.9 returned to HERO.

Flop: Q 9 7 ($714.4, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $329.7, Sidepot 1: $1238.4)


Turn: 5 ($714.4, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $329.7, Sidepot 1: $1238.4)


River: 6 ($714.4, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $329.7, Sidepot 1: $1238.4)


Results:
Final pot: $1745.4
BB shows 10 K A A
HERO shows 6 K K 4
SB shows 8 J 10 Q


I actually recorded a one hour vid from the PLO1000 table from this session where I took beating. It could be somewhat good video - I think I´ll upload it at some point when I have time to do it.

-$5k last 2 days in poker, so I guess I´ll take a small break from poker. I feel pretty mentally tired etc. at the moment anyway from only being on computer for last week, so break will do good. I have to do some stuff for this site, but def will not play for two weeks or so.

[Jsi]

Yep it would be interesting to see more videos where the player is losing and telling his opinion about those pots and what could have been done better etc.