Winnergambling's Blog

**Winnergambling** · 14-12-2008 19:02

Sweden - Finland X correct with 6.20 odds, wohoo

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Only 0.5 unit bet though (100€ bet).

**Winnergambling** · 15-12-2008 22:27

TILTTTTT...

I was planning to make a bet for HIFK today against Blues with odds of 3.90 thinking it is for value but then I went and listened to other's opinions and didn't make that bet.

After that I looked for HIFK over 2.5 goals would be a good bet and again I trusted others and instead took over 5.5 for the whole match. Match ended 1-4 for HIFK, grrrrrrrrrr.

In tilt I went to play some PLO and luckily won back about 2xmy bet size so not so much in tilt anymore, but still sucks. Looks like betting could raise a ton more tilt than poker. Luckily beer is here to help

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By the way, if someone is reading this right now, I recommend taking a look to O'Sullivan - Perry snooker match going on at Eurosport (or through http://www.justin.tv/mordane2 if you don't own eurosport). Sullivan is on hot streak and leads 5-2. Final frame for today just starting.

**Winnergambling** · 19-12-2008 11:19

Was playing blackout drunk this night after bar at cash tables and venting at chat. If someone who I played with is reading this - nothing personal if I cursed you in the chat, just pure venting

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Will write bigger update later about my games on December, now have to do a ton of other stuff.

**Winnergambling** · 29-12-2008 05:30

OK, so time for a December conclusion update. As expected, Christmas holidays made routines different for this month.

Since last update following things have happened:

1. I have lost like $900 in poker so profits are down to +$1.6k for the month from poker. I only played 4000 hands this month so this is OK result.

2. I made biggest sport bet of my life this far. Story was following:

Before Engelberg's ski jumping contest other bookers had T.Morgenstern as a clear favourite over finnish M.Hautamäki since Morgenstern had jumped 15-20m longer jumps in practice and qualification rounds. But, Finland's local betting company, Veikkaus, had decided their odds before those rounds for this pair and they didn't alter the odds after seeing the practice and qualification jumps at all first!

Well, this produced a huge +EV bet opportunity to play Morgenstern against Hautamäki on Veikkaus with odds 1.95 (other bookers had around 1.6 odds). This was a HUGE value bet with ~70% estimate. The betting opportunity stayed open ~45mins before the odds were finally changed to more realistic ones.

Well, the only downside was that one wasn't able to place that bet as a single, so you had to make those bets as double bet parlays minimum instead.

So I picked two lowest amount floorball home victories as doubles for that Morgenstern bet (odds 1.10 and 1.15) and bet 500€ on each - making my final bet size 1000€.

Morgenstern held easily against Hautamäki but other one of my floorball bets didn't hold, so I actually only netted +90€ from this 1000€ bet

. Sucks when the opportunity was so great!

Well, I am not going to play this month anymore because I have other things to do so I can make assumption that this month ends to the current tally = ~+$3.5k or so with everything included.

I will make separate "Year Conclusion Post" to this blog after New Year's Eve with thoughts about whole gambling year of 2008. I will also make different "Investing Thread" where I start to track my investments as promised, since it is not "gambling" so I like to keep that out from normal updates.

**Winnergambling** · 31-12-2008 02:33

I have been playing a little bit more yesterday and today, only like 1500 hands or so thou and have won a bit - like $2k+ or so. Nice thing to get "normal" mid four figure month from this December too even though haven't played much at all.

Well, today is the New Year's Eve and I don't know yet what to do! But I am sure I can figure something out for the evening. Last year I was actually at home the whole night - might have even grinded a bit LOL if I remember correctly. If I remeber correctly I had a flu but now I am OK so maybe something alcohol related will happen

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**Winnergambling** · 10-01-2009 20:58

Well, I should put some thoughts on year 2008 overall.

I have updated my graph and stats to my coaching thread, so you can check those results from there. Basically the result from poker was $0.61 per hand, which I consider quite good. Of course there are rakeback and bonuses in addition too and I made a bit with other bonuses and sports betting so I have to be happy considering how low amount of hands I played for the whole year. My all-in luck was a bit over neutral (see attached pic).

It looks like I won't have time to play anymore on 2009. Now the reason is a bit different - in 2008 I had to be involved with this site project and it took a lot of time. I think (hope) that now when there are not many basic contents missing anymore (a few still, which will be added soon), this won't take as much my time as it took in 2008. Of course we try to update new stuff regularly and have a few plans for those, but basic technical platform works well and there's no need to use time on that anymore.

But this year, instead of having to use time to site that much, I have to concentrate on finishing my degree, and it will take a ton of my time for sure. I haven't studied much 2006-2008 so now it's time to pack things up. There are also other things - I plan to get fit again (like I was in the beginning of 2008). I am not fat yet or anything, but too close that so now it's time to act and start to excersice regularly.

One thing I will do is I will do sports betting this year trying to make some money that way and play less poker I guess. But I am not a fan of making any strict plans, so we'll see. But definitely this blog will have more sports betting content than poker content this year. I think it's a good thing since there are so many poker blogs around and less sports betting stuff. But I will not forget poker and will whine about bad beats in this blog in the future too

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I will do one notable change to my blogging. I will not anymore update overall results to my individual blog entries, but instead I will add three things to my signature:
1) Poker profit and ptBB number for the year (updated about weekly)
2) Betting ROI and number of bets for the year (updated about weekly)
3) My investing portfolio profit/loss number in percent (updated quarterly - starting from Q1/09)

I think that some people here are interested in investing stuff, so I try to write something about that too always when something interesting comes up or something significant happens in my portfolio. Something little about this topic in my first entry of the year tomorrow.

Good luck for everyone for the year 2009!

**Winnergambling** · 15-01-2009 20:00

Sorry for the lack of updates. Well, now I'll give a bit bigger update then.

Poker:
Year 2009 has really not started well in poker for me. I have attached my all-in EV graph for this year

. I am down about the same amount in total as I am down in all-in EV. Basically this tells that in addition to running bad at all-in situations I have been coolered a ton and also for sure tilted a bit, but not that much.

Typical cooler type of hand for the month: http://www.pokerihanska.com/?h=964776681

Well, let's see if I am able to turn it around a bit and hopefully close to break-even for the month in poker.

Sports Betting:
I started to track my bets now in the beginning of 2009. I also of course play WG tipping service bets in addition to my own estimates and bets to SM-Liiga and some winter sports etc. Start has been quite good, but now this weekend I have like over half of my bankroll tied to bets so it can turn around to worse (or even better). As stated in the previous 2008 recap entry, I try to focus on sports betting more this year, since I have a ton non-gambling things to do also and sports betting takes less time than poker (with other's picks).

Even though yield has been very high this month this far I had one very nettling beat at betting too last weekend. The whole story went like this:

There was regular nordic combined world cup event at Val Di Fiemme last Saturday. As most of you already know, a finn, Anssi Koivuranta has dominated nordic combined events this season pretty well. This Val Di Fiemme event was a bit different than events this far though - it had first a mass start 10km skiing and then two rounds of ski jumping (usually just one). So this structure definitely favored good ski jumpers.

Well, about 2 hours before the start of the event finnish newspaper reported that Koivuranta (favourite at bookies) has serious stomach sickness issues and might not even start to the event. Well I did go fast as a lightning to bet on Bernhard Gruber to Centrebet, who has second favourite with odds of 5.00 to win and 1.65 to finish top3. I bet 250€ on Gruber's win and 250€ to top3 finish and also 250€ for Magnus Moan's top3 finish. Then I went Expekt and bet $615 to head-to-head bet on Gruber vs. Koivuranta with odds 2.45.

Well, the event started and Koivuranta stopped after two kilometers of skiing. Unofrtunately Expekt has a rule that bets are void in nordic combined if both parties of the bet don't start both sections of the event (skiing and ski jumping). So I only got my own $615 bet back from the great head-to-head bet

I still had those other three bets. Gruber was in relatively good position after skiing, about 1min 15sec behind the lead - Moan was leading. In the first round of ski jumping Moan failed a bit and dropped to like third already, Gruber jumped pretty nice and was already fourth before second round. Things looked pretty good.

In the second round Gruber made a great jump and was in great lead before last jumper - some Austrian guy. I was like this is a sure win. The effing guy jumped like his best jump ever and won with 0.5 ****ing points the whole competition before Gruber! &%/&%)/¤¤/! That's like half a meter in ski jumping or one second in skiing!!! There goes my 1250€ win...

Well, tonight's SM-Liiga hockey bets of mine hit pretty nice, +33.4 units

. Sports Betting up now over $9k for the month

. Kinda feels good after all the poker beats this month. Hopefully the rest of the month goes as well!

In the next update I will talk about some investing stuff etc.

**Winnergambling** · 31-01-2009 23:12

Well, January has come to an end. I haven't had time to write daily stuff into this blog, as you have noted, we added/updated a couple of things on the site and also I have been partying a lot.

Well, let's draw some conclusions for the month anyway.

Poker:
Miserable 4k hands only played for the whole month, loss of $3.2k. Got sick of poker a bit and did not play at all for the latter part of the month. Not maybe playing much in the February either, we'll see.

Sports Betting:
Basically started to sports bet very actively this month and track every bet properly with excel sheet. Mostly following Aapo's great soccer tips, but have added a bit of own bets and other's tips to SM-Liiga and other sports into the mix aswell. I am up about 50 units from Aapo's tips and 60 units from hockey/other sports bets (partially my own bets, partially following other's tips) for the month. I used $100 unit size for the month and will always change it in the beginning of the month after doing bankroll calculation if the change will be $20 or bigger. Because January went this good, the unit size of mine will grow to ~$125 for the February, because I have decided not to withdraw from my bankroll now at all this year if no forcing need appear. Shouldn't appear since I have withdrawn so much during last two years not growing bankroll at all that my other financials are now in good enough shape that I can now concentrate on growing bankroll only.

It kinda still feels "horrifying" to bet over $1000 to a single match, but I am getting used to it pretty well. I know one or two high-rollers who bet over $10k to a single bet (and those bets are within their bankroll) so that must feel sick for sure.

Some of the most memorable bets for the month were the first CHL final, from which I gained over 20 units, and that one SM-Liiga Thursday round with over 30 unit gain from it as a whole. In first CHL final I had for example 3unit bet for Zurich to win first period with odds 7.00

. The most hurting bet for the month was nordic combined bets I told about in the entry above.

Stocks:
As told earlier, I have an investing plan, which will be completed in early March (2/3 of the total buys already made). I will track the results then quarterly in my signature (it's kind of gambling too isn't it?). Even though the stock indexes have fallen rapidly during last 5 months since I started my buys, I am not down much overall in my portfolio (portfilio 2.8% down only). That is only because I made one very good buy IMO on 29.12.2008.

On that day Entraction Poker Network announced that NoIQ Poker will join their network. I knew already from earlier that Entraction is a publicly listed company in Swedish stock market (I have been interested and being involved in finance/stocks for over 8 years now). The press release about the move was announced on 29.12.2008 10AM or so. After I read the news about it from 2+2 about an hour after that I went immediately to see how their (Entraction's) stock price has reacted. For my big surprise, the stock had not moved at all. I was like

- this should be great news to Entraction?!? I made a quick decision to buy (not part of my strict stocks buying plan) to buy immediately 200,000 stock with a price of 0.62SEK. Now since then the others have maybe realised the meaning of these news too and stock price has risen 58% in one month (see attachment), even though major stock indexes have dropped ~7% in January. So this gain in Entraction's stock value has covered most of the losses in other stocks I own.

Yeah, but as said, my ivesting plan is still not complete and I will talk more about this stuff in the future too. I guess at least some people are interested about this topic too, even thoug this is not finance site.

Well, I had something else in my mind too, but already forgot it, so I will end this entry for now. I'll promise to write more actively in February.