Cashable Casino Bonuses
Cashable casino bonuses are the most common type of the casino bonuses offered. For example, let´s say that some imaginary casino offers a sign-up bonus, where a player gets 300 euros of bonus money for his 100 euro (or more) first deposit. Bonus money can’t be withdrawn right away, because it has a 20x(deposit+bonus) wagering requirement attached to it before a player can withdraw any money. The wagering requirement (WR) therefore is 20x(100€+300€)=8000€ in casino games. The average loss for every dollar played in blackjack with optimal strategy is around 0,005€. Because the wagering requirement is 8000€, the calculated loss can be expected to be 8000€x0,005=40€. If the player has an average amount of luck, he will, with a 100€ investment earn 300€-40€=260€ pure profit!
Bet Sizing and Variance
If the player plays for an example by betting on two spots for 5€ on every round, he wagers more than 10€ for every played deal taking into account doubles and pair splits in blackjack. Because you can play 300-1100 deals per hour in online blackjack (depending some on software and your experience level), wagering 8000€ takes about one hour with this medium bet size for somewhat experienced player on a fast software like Playtech. When you divide the expected win of 260€ with the time used (~2h with all the registrations and software downloads etc.), it equals up to a whopping 130€ per hour. Very few jobs in any country pay as much, with what turns out to be a very small risk when playing with such a good bonus. The hourly profit can be considerably increased if you use a strategy I recommend, aggressive betting (described later in this article) - it also increases your EV a bit and variance considerably.
Variance is a mathematical term involved in random outcomes, like playing different casino games. We can decrease the variance by selecting a small bet size and less spots to play at. Or increase the variance by upping our bet size. Either way, our expected gain on a certain bonus remains (almost) the same, but the amount of time used to a bonus gets significantly higher the smaller bet size we choose and a risk of ruin or chance of loss also becomes lower. Of course when the EV remains the same and amount used increases, the hourly rate of gain gets smaller – that´s why experienced players which have a moderate bankroll prefer to use aggressive method (described later) and generally higher bet sizing. Beginners with small bankrolls might want to avoid the risks by betting a smaller amount per hand, thus increasing the time required to clear the wagering requirements involved in a bonus.
EV – meaning expected value, is the amount of gain (or loss) a player will get after playing through the bonus with optimal strategy in a certain game. Because of random elements built in the games, luck has a significant magnitude in a single bonus a player plays. The results are divided within normal distribution.
In 68% of the time, the result from a single bonus is within 1SD (+ or -). In 95% of the time, the result from a single bonus is within 2SD (+ or -). You should find a suitable risk/hourly profit ratio for yourself when playing bonuses. Below is a simple table, which gives some basic examples of different bet size / risk / hourly rate in a Golden Palace bonus example used already above.
| Bet Size | Hands | Hours | Chance of Gain | -+1 Standard Deviation | Average Hourly Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ~7200 | 8 | 99.7% | +170€ to +360€ | 33 € |
| 2 | ~3600 | 4 | 97.5% | +130€ to +400€ | 66 € |
| 3 | ~2400 | 2.5 | 94.5% | +100€ to +430€ | 106 € |
| 5 | ~1400 | 1.5 | 89.3% | +50€ to +480€ | 177 € |
| 10 | ~700 | 0.75 | 81.0% | -35€ to +570€ | 355 € |
As you can see, the bet size has a significant affect to risk and to hourly average gain. In table examples we have assumed a player is pretty experienced to play online blackjack and fast software like Playtech averaging about 1000 hands per hour. With aggressive method described below, players variance will still climb higher and hourly rate increase also. You can use very useful tool – return and variance calculator on our site to test different expected returns and variance levels with different bet sizes and amount of hands played per deal.
Aggressive Betting
At the casinos it is usually recommended to play cashable bonuses aggressively as if they were sticky-type bonuses. This way one will gain in short time either a large profit or a loss of a deposit. This is called “Aggressive Betting” or “Aggressive Method”. This strategy leads to the best EV (expected value) and hourly profit, but also increases variance. This is why players with smaller bankrolls (less than $1000) should play the casino bonuses in the beginning with small bet sizes, and then it’s less risky to build up your bankroll. Players with a larger bankroll, from playing poker or from normal day job, should play the so called pre-wager cashable bonuses always with this aggressive style, therefore either gaining a large, quick profit, or a quick small loss; this way you’ll get a slightly bigger EV than using the “grinding method” (small bets) of playing, and especially a lot higher hourly profit, also a bigger variance though too.
A Calculated Example On The Benefits of Aggressive Betting
We have gotten questions concerning the benefits of aggressive betting compared to grinding method. Here’s a concrete example, using a bonus an an example, which gives a 200€ bonus for a 200€ deposit straight up (pre-wager cashable bonus).
When betting aggressively, not all players gain wins, but for example all players take 3x(deposit+bonus) amount goal, then only 1/3 players reach their goal and 2/3 bust that particular bonus. Well, of course the bonus has a wagering requirement, let’s say 10,000€ (50xBonus). These two players out of three won’t reach their goal, so they bust quickly, meaning that they won’t have to play through the wagering requirement. As an outcome they get -200€ (deposit). 1/3 players reach their 3x goal and therefore have to play through the wagering requirement. Because the house has an advantage, he’ll always lose on average -40€ during the wagering, if the wagering requirement is the mentioned 10,000€. So, the outcome is, that one player has earned +960€ profit, and the other two players have lost their deposit -200€ -> 560€ to these three players, meaning +187€ EV per player!
If the same three people all play using “grinding method”, then each one of them plays through the wagering requirements and lose 40€ of their bonus on average (-40€ each), so everyone profits +160€ in EV.
+187€ > 160€, so the aggressive betting style lead to better EV.
Another benefit with the aggressive betting is that now 2/3 players have not wasted more than a couple of minutes of their time, and only one has had to use for example two hours to play through the requirements after reaching his goal. Therefore three players have used two hours together playing aggressively, where as if they had played “safely” they would have used 6h with the same grinding bet. This makes the hourly profit for aggressive players (+187€x3) / 2h = 280€ / h. The “grinding method” players get a “mere” (+160€x3) / 6h = 80€ / h.
So, the biggest advantage of aggressive betting is gain in the hourly rate. The bigger the wagering requirement, the better the aggressive method is for EV. Aggressive betting also seems less “bonus hunter”-like and more “high-roller” style of playing, so it’s easier to get reload bonuses in the future in case you happen to lose your deposit. That’s a big advantage too. The only negative thing about aggressive style is variance – you can have long losing streaks when you have no luck (naturally winning streaks too with good luck).
I hope this cleared things out a bit. It’s just math 
After-wager Bonuses
Not all bonuses are handed out in advance, sometimes you need to fulfill the wagering requirement first, and the bonus will be paid then (so called after-wager bonus; noted as “cashable-AW“ in tables on this site). We’ll always explain in the tables which type of bonus it is. In these cases you naturally need to use “grinding method”, to reach the wagering requirement without huge variance. Also it is not recommended to use aggressive method when the Bonus % is less than ~60% compared to your deposit even if the bonus is given pre-wager.
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